I might take a moment to point blog readers to this post from the blog back in February. In it, I point to NY Federal Reserve computer models that indicated the recession to end in the second half of 2009.
Well, the second half is approaching, isn’t it? Shall we revisit the February predictions from NY FR?
Here’s what’s in the news today (full article here):
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. recession is set to end "soon," but continued job losses and plunging house prices point to an economic recovery that will be more moderate than those experienced in previous downturns, a survey showed.
The survey of 45 professional forecasters released by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) on Wednesday found almost three-quarters expected the economic downturn to end by the third quarter of this year.
The remaining saw the turning point delayed until either the last quarter of this year or the first three months of 2010. None of the respondents believed the recession, now in its 17th month, would extend beyond the first quarter of 2010.
"While the overall tone remains soft, there are emerging signs that the economy is stabilizing," said NABE President Chris Varvares.
"Business economists look for the recession to end soon, but that the economic recovery is likely to be considerably more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines."
-- Lucia Mutikani
So the NY Fed model wasn’t very far off…I haven’t done the legwork to see if I could find a follow-on report on the NY Fed’s model. I haven’t had that many sleepless nights lately; no time for this sort of research. I’ll keep you posted, though, once I get to it.
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