Can A Recession RECEDE?

This from NPR’s Weekend Edition [link]:

At the beginning of 2009, many Americans feared an economic depression was at hand. In January alone, U.S. employers slashed nearly three-quarters of a million jobs.

Now, as the year's second half begins, most economists are saying the worst of the recession is over, and that slow growth will begin in the fall.

"The hemorrhaging has peaked," said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist for the Economic Outlook Group, a forecasting firm. "We're on the other side of the recession now."

Baumohl believes the recession, which began in December 2007, may already have ended, and a feeble recovery begun.

Recall my post back in February [link] pointing ot the NY Fed’s recession forecasting model. Mr. Baumohl’s comments are in direct alignment with the NY Fed model.

Now, I’m not claiming any special knowledge about the economy. I’ve just been following the NY Fed model for the last six months, to learn from it. This has been intellectually fascinating, even as my estate has felt the sting of the market corrections.

I’ll continue to follow this. Look for further updates as the future unfolds.